Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271443 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1043 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF LOWS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH LIFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK AND ELEVATED. WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AT THIS TIME HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO USED AREAL WORDING AND ADDED A SPRINKLES. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WILL PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS THE NE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWERS 60S. PREFERRED COOLER MAV MOS. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...NEARLY SEASONABLE. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUE AFT WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW. STILL EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MON...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO BEING SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM...SO WONT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS START TO DIFFER DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS A SOLUTION WITH THE LOW OFF THE NJ COAST AND THEN MOVING EAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST AND MOVES THE LOW EAST...KEEPING THE REGION MOSTLY DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS HAD BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS TRENDS...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT QPF WOULD IMPACT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRES TRACKING SWD FROM THE MARITIMES THRU TUE. VFR. ISOLD-SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE AFT 16Z...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY. DIRECTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC AT THE CITY TERMINALS TIL THE FLOW VEERS A LITTLE TO THE NW THIS EVE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF FLOW SOUTH OF 310 MAG IS APPROX 16-20Z. GUSTS BEFORE 20Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF FLOW SOUTH OF 310 MAG IS APPROX 16-20Z. GUSTS BEFORE 20Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF FLOW SOUTH OF 310 MAG IS APPROX 16-20Z. GUSTS BEFORE 20Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI... .TUE...VFR WITH N FLOW. .WED...VFR WITH LGT AND VRB FLOW BECOMING SW. .THU...MAINLY VFR. LOW PROB FOR -SHRA. WINDS BECOMING ENE. .FRI...COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE WITH NE FLOW AND RAIN.
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&& .MARINE... WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LOWERED POPS AND USED AREAL WORDING. A SERIES OF LOWS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WATERS UNDER A W-NW FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NLY ON TUE. THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS LATE TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM AT THE END OF THE WEEK....SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT. THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT THIS TIME THAT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JMC/JC MARINE...BC/DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW

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