Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 170855 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 455 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH FASTER RAP/HRRR TIMING GENERALLY BETTER. THIS MEANS THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY CLEAR NYC METRO BY 12Z-13Z AND FAR ERN SECTIONS BY 15Z-16Z. THIS BREAK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS FROM NYC WEST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY MODEST CAPE CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIP IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING. RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY VFR...BUT TEMPO OR POTENTIALLY PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. -RA/-SHRA SHIFTS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS 11Z. LIKELY DRY UNTIL AT LEAST 17-18Z...THEN ISO SHRA/TSTM UNTIL 00-01Z. COVERAGE AND CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHRA/TSTM IN TAFS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THRU THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MODERATE THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY FOR DIRECTION. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS BACK TOWARD 190-180 MAG THIS AFTN. CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 13Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 13Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 13Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 13Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 13Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCAIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. CHC MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM AFTER 14Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI NGT...VFR. .SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH G25-30KT LATE AFTN. .SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN. .MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN. .TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT.
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&& .MARINE... S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IMPACT OF RAINFALL TODAY ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JC MARINE...BC/GOODMAN FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN

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