Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 051155 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 755 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS. SFC TROF WAS STRETCHED FROM CNTRL NEW ENGLAND INTO NY STATE THIS MRNG. THE PRES TROF WILL SLOWLY DROP THRU TODAY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL TNGT. SLY COMPONENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF...KEEPING TEMPS COOL AT THE COASTS AND MILD INTERIOR. AFTER THE TROF PASSES...TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP AT THE COASTS AS NW FLOW MIXES DOWN THE WARMER AIR WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS A SEA BREEZE THEN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE WEAK PRES FIELD. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE OR AVAILABLE PER STLT. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S. IT THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY...BETWEEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE...AND WHEN THIS MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIMITED...THE DRY AIR. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED TSTMS FROM THE FCST AND LOWERED POPS FOR SHWRS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. DID NOT WANT TO GO COMPLETELY DRY DUE TO THE AREAS OF SFC CONVERGENCE. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAMDNG5 FOR TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN COMES LATE TNGT AND WED MRNG. REMNANT MCS APPEARS TO BE THE TRIGGER AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOURCE. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE THETAE ADVECTION TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLD TSTM. OTHERWISE...THE SLUGGISH SFC FRONT JUST S OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE...SO HAVE KEPT SCHC FOR SHWRS FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. COOLER WITH NE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TRANSPORTS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SETS UP TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK PUSH OF THE FRONT SOUTH WITH RIDGING HOLDING STRONG OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH ON SUNDAY FOR THE FRONT TO SINK INTO THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC KEEP THE RIDGE STRONGER...AND THIS HAS AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. HAVE SIDED WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...POPS INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY MONDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S IN THE CITY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WED. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY THE WIND FORECAST AT ALL THE TERMINALS WILL BE TOUGH AND HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FLOW LIGHTENS THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. GOOD CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TO KEWR/KTEB LATE THIS AFTN SO HAVE INCLUDED IT. THERE IS LITTLE FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY ISOLD TO NO SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WED. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN AND THUNDER. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. CONDS MAY DROP TO MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES AFT 14Z UNTIL THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 18-19Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 340-020 DEGREES AFT 15Z UNTIL THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 20Z-21Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST AFT 15Z. SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD AROUND 21Z-23Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 340-010 DEGREES AFT 14Z. SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD AROUND 21Z-23Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 340-010 DEGREES AFT 14Z UNTIL AROUND 20-21Z WHEN SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 310 TO 360 DEGREES AFT 14Z UNTIL AROUND 19Z-20Z WHEN SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AIRFIELD. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED...MVFR TO ISOLD IFR IN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM. .WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE COLD STABLE WATERS ARE LIMITING WIND GUSTS PER THE BUOY DATA. WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING OVER THEN S OF THE WATERS TNGT AND WED...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BLW SCA LVLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SUB SCA CONDITIONS. A FEW 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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BASIN AVE RAINFALL OF AROUND A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED IF A REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IMPACTS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE SCT AND LGT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...DS AVIATION... MARINE...JMC/DS HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS

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