Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 051938 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 338 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THEN WASHES OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SEABREEZE. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING BUILDS SE TOWARD THE AREA AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN ALOFT AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NW. THIS WILL ALSO SEND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NE. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED IN A WEAKENED STATE. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT THESE SYSTEMS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY FROM NYC AND POINTS WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND...TO THE UPPER 50S NYC METRO. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS BLEND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WED...PRIMARILY FROM NYC AND POINTS WEST AS A DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD ALTOGETHER EVEN MISS THE AREA SHOULD MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO TREND SW WITH THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND REMAINS INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NE FLOW IN THE MORNING THAT BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING. WEAK AFT SEABREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY ON WED WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING SE CT WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN. SKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY CLEAR FROM NE TO SW THROUGH WED EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE 65 TO 70...WITH LOWS WED NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INLAND...TO THE UPPER 50S METRO NY. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER A WARM AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. COASTAL AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AS TEMPS WILL BE COOLED BY THE FLOW OFF THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE ALSO LIKELY...RESULTING IN COOLER AFTERNOON CONDS. UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE...AND WITH THIS BOUNDARY CLOSE BY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS STARTING ON SUNDAY...BUT THE CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION STARTING ON TUESDAY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS UNTIL AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY. VFR. ISO SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN PRIMARILY FOR KTEB/KEWR/KLGA/KJFK. COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED FRONT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC VAR OR N WINDS AT TIMES BEFORE 19Z. BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-23Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC VAR OR N WINDS AT TIMES BEFORE 21Z. BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-23Z. TIMING OF SHIFT TO S IN SEA BREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-23Z. TIMING OF SHIFT TO SE IN SEA BREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-23Z. SEA BREEZE SHIFT TIMING TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED AFTN...VFR LIKELY. .WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VFR. .SUN...CHC MVFR OR LOWER. CHC RA. && .MARINE...
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SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A FEW 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A POTENTIAL DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOK TO BE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW

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