Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 031437 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1037 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A BROAD...WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TRI-STATE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...PASSING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE EAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS. HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPS A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW INTERIOR...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG IT. OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST. SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY CAP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS NEAR THE COAST WILL OCCUR MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS SLOWLY FALLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MILDER LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S FORECAST IN NYC. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH SW FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND INTERIOR AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE SHOULD ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 00Z GFS/NAM/CMC INDICATE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS FEATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS IT COULD ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. EVEN IF THE WAVE DEVELOPS...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS THEN SLIDING TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. STILL APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES TO FAR S TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE AREA OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME CLOUD COVER. IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS FAR W ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA ON FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM AND WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME RANGE. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK...BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GIVE WAY TO SW-SSW FLOW UNDER 10 KT BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT W AT KSWF. A SEABREEZE WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KSWF THIS AFTERNOON...SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10KT IMMEDIATE S SHORE (BOTH ATLANTIC AND SOUND) TERMINALS...AND UNDER 10 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE OF TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... OCEAN SWELLS TO 5 FT CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF MORICHES INLET. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THERE UNTIL 16Z. SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET AT 44017 HAVE STAYED JUST UNDER 5 FT...WITH SWELLS DIMINISHING TO ONLY 3 FT AT BUOY 44097. GIVEN THIS...DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA ANY FARTHER W. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT. 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LESS THAN 10 KT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL PREDICTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE SHOULD THEN BE SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE KOKX RADAR IS DOWN FOR REPAIR. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED...AND REPAIRS WILL BEGIN ONCE THEY ARRIVE. INITIAL ESTIMATE FOR COMPLETION OF REPAIR IS LATE MONDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...BC MARINE...MALOIT/DS HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DS EQUIPMENT...

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