Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231737 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 137 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHORTWAVE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN PCPN REACHING THE SURFACE IN SOME AREAS IN SPITE OF FAIRLY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S...WET- BULBING HAS COOLED THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR SOME SLEET AND SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND PCPN TYPE ACCORDINGLY...AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMP FCST SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. WITH DRY CONDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TO DEVELOP. WEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS TO 5-10 MPH AND TO 10-15 MPH ACROSS NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND/URBANIZED AREAS OF NE NJ. FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WILL HOIST A FREEZE WATCH FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AS THE LOCAL FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE SPRING HAS BEGUN THERE. DRY AND WINDY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A H5 CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THE H5 LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO STEER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-WEST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE H5 LOW WILL THEN PUSHES SOUTH ON MONDAY. SURFACE HEATING COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME ADDED LIFT FROM A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT OFF LOW BROADENS. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AT THE SURFACE AND HEADS NORTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY THAT IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST. COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WATCH WITH THE UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE HOVERS NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE REDUCED MUCH WITH THESE. A GUSTY W-WNW FLOW NEAR 15-20 KT WILL BE GUSTING 25-30 KT AND GRADUALLY LOWERING BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS 35-40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 01Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 01Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 01Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY-TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND NY HARBOR WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY DUE TO A STRONG WEST FLOW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. FOR LI SOUND/LI BAYS...WILL HOIST A SCA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS ON THOSE WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. 5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE LONG TERM. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT WITH RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ079-081. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ338-350-353- 355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-340-345. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MPS NEAR TERM...JC/JP/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JM MARINE...JP/MPS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JP/MPS

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