Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 232007 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 407 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE. RESULTING NW FLOW USHERS IN COLD AIR. CLOUDS DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW OR AROUND FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPS. FREEZE WARNINGS NOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE INLAND ZONES AS WELL AS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER DROP SLIGHTLY...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY FEWER CLOUDS VERSUS TODAY...SO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGH TEMPS THAN TODAY EXPECTED. NO RED FLAG WATCH ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. A SPRINKLE OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ONCE AGAIN...AND NOT MUCH OF AIR MASS CHANGE. TEMPERATURES THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW OR NEAR FREEZING AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE SOME FREEZE WARNINGS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME ADDED LIFT FROM A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BROADENS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE HOVERS NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE REDUCED MUCH WITH THESE. FOR TERMINALS KHPN...KSWF AND CT TERMINALS...THE SHOWERS COULD BE A COMBINATION OF SLEET AND SNOW IN ADDITION TO RAIN. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS JUST CONSIST OF RAIN. A GUSTY W-WNW FLOW NEAR 15-20 KT WILL BE GUSTING 25-30 KT AND GRADUALLY LOWERING BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS 35- 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 01Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 01Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 35 KT BEFORE 01Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY-TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND NY HARBOR CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN WINDS...ESPECIALLY...OVER THE HARBOR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. BUT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR LI SOUND/LI BAYS...SCA CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY...BUT GUST FREQUENCY OF THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SCA. GUSTS TO 25 KT STILL A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY EVENING ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO THE SCA MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME. BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WILL ALLOW SPS FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY....ALL BASIC CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WATCH ARE FORECAST TO BE MET FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET...AT LEAST AN SPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...AND A RED FLAG WATCH OR WARNING MAY STILL EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ005>008. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079- 081. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ338-350-353- 355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-340-345.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JM MARINE...JC/FIG FIRE WEATHER...JC HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG

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