Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261012 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 612 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATER VAPOR INDICATES A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ERN CANADA DRIFTING WWD. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SHRTWV ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYS HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...QPF IS MINIMAL IN THE PROGS. HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT AS A RESULT...GOING WITH ISOLD COVERAGE. THE NAM INDICATES MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES SPREADING SWD DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE EVE BEFORE FIZZLING OVER THE CWA. OTHERWISE THE DATA SUGGESTS DRY. WENT WITH A DRY FCST AFT 1Z WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPS...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. MIXING ABV H85 PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND THE TEMP CAP LOOKS TO BE INVOF THE DEVELOPING CLOUD DECK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SCT SHWRS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR MON AS THE UPR LOW CENTER MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND SLIDES DOWN THE ERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPR SUPPORT. THE NAM ONLY INDICATES 50-150 J/KG SBCAPE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES INVOF THE RI BORDER. RI INTO ERN MA GETS ABV 200 J/KG...IF THIS ENTIRE SYS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WWD...THE ISOLD TSTM THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE CWA. FOR NOW...TSTMS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FCST. TEMPS AROUND 0C AT H85...BUT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND H8 WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES BLW CLIMO. THE RIBBON OF SHRTWV ENERGY THEN SLIDES EWD MON NGT AND TUE. AS A RESULT...GRADUALLY END PCPN CHCS MON NGT AND KEPT TUE DRY. TEMPS APPROACH CLIMO WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING AND DEEP MIXING CONTINUES ON NW FLOW. UPR RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN ON WED. A DRY FCST WED AND WED NGT. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE UPR 60S ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON...BUT THE WEAK PRES FIELD SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF SEA BREEZE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF NOTION OF DEEPENING LOW PRES SOMEWHERE NEAR HATTERAS THU...THEN TRACKING NEWD OVER THE ATLC FRI AND INTO THE N ATLC SAT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN STILL THAT THE SYS MISSES US...WITH PERHAPS SOME SHWRS IN THE WAA PATTERN ON THU. MAINTAINED THE LOW POPS IN THE FCST THRU THE PERIOD...BUT CHANGES WX TYPE TO RAIN FRI-SAT AS IT APPEARS THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS OPPOSED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY PCPN ATTM. TEMPS A BLEND OF PREV AND THE GMOS25. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER THERMAL TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS BACK IN SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A N/NE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT... WHICH THEN BACKS AROUND THE THE W/SW BY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 15Z ALONG THE CT COAST. KEWR AND KLGA MAY SEABREEZE LATE. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO VARY AS THE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU... .SUN NIGHT...VFR.. .MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS. .TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR. .THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WORKS SLOWLY EAST. MARGINAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST THU MAY IMPACT THE WATERS WITH A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008- 010>012. NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079- 081. NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103- 105-107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...DW MARINE...DW HYDROLOGY...JMC

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