Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 271749 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 149 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF LOWS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHORTWAVE AND VORT CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME. RADAR WAS PICKING UP ECHOES OF 10 TO 25 DBZ SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE WAVE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER. WILL BE DRY THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...NEARLY SEASONABLE. A FEW INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUE AFT WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW. STILL EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MON...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO BEING SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM...SO WONT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS START TO DIFFER DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS A SOLUTION WITH THE LOW OFF THE NJ COAST AND THEN MOVING EAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST AND MOVES THE LOW EAST...KEEPING THE REGION MOSTLY DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS HAD BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS TRENDS...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT QPF WOULD IMPACT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. VFR. ISOLD-SCT SHWRS MAINLY E OF THE CITY THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. DIRECTION MOSTLY NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SAT... .TUE PM...VFR. NW G20KT. .WED...VFR. .THU...VFR. EAST G15-20KT PM. .FRI...CHC SUB-VFR/RAIN. CHC NE G25KT. .SAT...VFR. && .MARINE... A SERIES OF LOWS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WATERS UNDER A W-NW FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NLY ON TUE. SEAS REMAIN UNDER 5 FT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NOT EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL NEAR SHORE GUSTS THAT APPROACH 25 KT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NO LONGER EXPECTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM AT THE END OF THE WEEK....SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT. THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT THIS TIME THAT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JC MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MET

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.