Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 070801 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 401 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TO THE TRI-STATE REGION THRU MON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUE AND PASS OFFSHORE ON WED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 580 DAM AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 11C. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SEABREEZES DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DUE TO A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE INLAND...AWAY FROM THE WATER WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP IT COOLER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF A DOWNSTREAM BLOCK. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AIDE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH FRI. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PATCHY RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY EXPECTED. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WED NIGHT...50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND ON FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN EXTENSIVE UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...NOT BREAKING DOWN UNTIL THE TUE-WED PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INVOF THE CAROLINA COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN PRODUCES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...BUT ALSO PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EXTENSIVE FOG AND DZ THRU THE WEEKEND. THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE FIRST TO BURN OFF EACH DAY...WITH SERN LI AND CT POSSIBLY NOT BREAKING OUT AT ALL. THE RING OF CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN W AND N OF THE CWA...SO NO RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE DZ IS INCLUDED IN THE FCST. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE A BIT ON MON...WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING IN STRONG WITH ECMWF AND HEIGHTS FALLING WITH THE GFS. FALLING HEIGHTS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS WRN ZONES IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. BECAUSE THE ECMWF CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THIS SCENARIO...HAVE ONLY FCST ISOLD TSTMS ATTM. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING OFFSHORE BY WED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND PW/S OVER AN INCH...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP PER THE GFS SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHCS FOR PCPN IN THE FCST. TEMPS THRU MON A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND SREF. THIS KEEPS TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE AT THE COASTS BY GIVING HVY WEIGHT TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE. TEMPS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 THEREAFTER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES 5-10 KT EXPECTED...PERHAPS JUST OVER 10 KT AT KJFK. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON... .LATE THU NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. .FRI-MON...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDS IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS EACH LATE NIGHT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS INTO MON WITH A WEAK SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK HOWEVER IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA COND POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AS EARLY AS MON NGT THRU TUE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME ORGANIZED PCPN IS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.