Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241457 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1057 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING. .MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED AND THU. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25 NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36 BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34 CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37 LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39 KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37 ISLIP NY 36/2012...31 *AND PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-078>081. NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JM/DW MARINE...JMC/MET/PW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET CLIMATE...

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