Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020535 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 135 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...BUT COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN CT/ERN LONG ISLAND IF THE SKY REMAINS CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THESES AREAS AS A RESULT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT...SLOWING DOWN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH/WEST...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP FORM A THERMAL TROUGH...AND THE COMBO OF THE LAGGING SHORTWAVE... INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH MAY SPARK AN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER. PER WARMER GUIDANCE EXPECT HIGHS 60-65 CLOSER TO THE COAST...65-70 MOST ELSEWHERE...AND SOME LOWER 70S IN NE NJ AND IN THE VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC. THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT...WITH SKY COVER BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES ACROSS. LOWS SHOULD BE 50-55 IN THE VICINITY OF NYC...40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 30S IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE ON SUN WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK THERMAL TROF AIDED BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED AFT SHOWER INLAND. RIDGING ALOFT ON MON WILL KEEP THE AREA CAPPED OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF THEN TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...BRIEFLY SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NE AND ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE BOUNDARY TUE AFT/NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A STRAY SHOWER COULD LINGER INTO WED MORNING WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY JUST STALLS OUT AND WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH DAYTIME GENERALLY IN THE 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SEA BREEZES. LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS BY TUE OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60 NYC METRO. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK...BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. NE FLOW OFF THE SOUND DEVELOPS AT KLGA AROUND 14Z. A SE FLOW SETS UP AT KJFK AND KGON AROUND 14Z AND KEWR AROUND 16Z. KSWF SHOULD HAVE N WINDS DEVELOP AROUND 16Z. SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AT ALL BUT KSWF FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON STARTING ALONG SW CT COAST FIRST. WINDS UNDER 10 KT EXCEPT AROUND 10KT WITH SEABREEZE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON/KISP TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TSTMS. .WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY LINGERING SHRA EARLY. && .MARINE... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL SCA EVENT LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...GOODMAN/DW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW

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