Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 030847 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 447 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...PASSING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE EAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL DEVELOP A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW INTERIOR. THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST. SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY CAP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS NEAR THE COAST WILL OCCUR MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS SLOWLY FALLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MILDER LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S FORECAST IN NYC. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH SW FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND INTERIOR AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE SHOULD ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 00Z GFS/NAM/CMC INDICATE A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS FEATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS IT COULD ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. EVEN IF THE WAVE DEVELOPS...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS THEN SLIDING TO THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. STILL APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES TO FAR S TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE AREA OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME CLOUD COVER. IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS FAR W ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA ON FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM AND WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME RANGE. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GIVE WAY TO SW-SSW FLOW UNDER 10 KT BY MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT W AT KSWF. A SEABREEZE WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KSWF THIS AFTERNOON...SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10KT IMMEDIATE S SHORE (BOTH ATLANTIC AND SOUND) TERMINALS...AND UNDER 10 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE OF TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... OCEAN SWELLS TO 5 FT CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN W OF MORICHES INLET. THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10Z AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO 4 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT SO FAR. IF THEY BUILD TO 5 FT...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED HERE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT. 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON TUESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL PREDICTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE SHOULD THEN BE SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE KOKX RADAR IS DOWN FOR REPAIR. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED...AND REPAIRS WILL BEGIN ONCE THEY ARRIVE. INITIAL ESTIMATE FOR COMPLETION OF REPAIR IS LATE MONDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/MALOIT NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...DS/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...DS/MALOIT EQUIPMENT...

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