Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240014 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 814 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE. RESULTING NW FLOW USHERS IN COLD AIR. ANY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY. THEREAFTER...CLOUDS DIMINISH...WITH WINDS DECREASING...AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW OR AROUND FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPS. FREEZE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND ZONES AS WELL AS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. FROST ADVISORIES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED AS ENOUGH MIXING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO KEEP GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER DROP SLIGHTLY...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY FEWER CLOUDS VERSUS TODAY...SO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGH TEMPS THAN TODAY EXPECTED. NO RED FLAG WATCH ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. A SPRINKLE OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ONCE AGAIN...AND NOT MUCH OF AIR MASS CHANGE. TEMPERATURES THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW OR NEAR FREEZING AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE SOME FREEZE WARNINGS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME ADDED LIFT FROM A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BROADENS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED MOSTLY SE OF LONG ISLAND...SO EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PD. GUSTY W-NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 12Z FRI. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIR COULD VEER MORE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING THAN FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIR COULD VEER MORE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING THAN FCST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIR COULD VEER MORE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING THAN FCST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIR COULD VEER MORE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING THAN FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIR COULD VEER MORE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING THAN FCST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIR COULD VEER MORE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING. .MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND NY HARBOR CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN WINDS...ESPECIALLY...OVER THE HARBOR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. BUT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR LI SOUND/LI BAYS...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY...BUT GUST FREQUENCY OF THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SCA. GUSTS TO 25 KT STILL A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY EVENING ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO THE SCA MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME. BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... FOR FRIDAY....ALL BASIC CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WATCH ARE FORECAST TO BE MET FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET...AT LEAST AN SPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...AND A RED FLAG WATCH OR WARNING MAY STILL EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ005>008. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079- 081. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ338-350-353- 355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-340-345. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG NEAR TERM...JC/NV SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JM MARINE...JC/FIG/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG

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