Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 031958
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD SHOWERS INLAND. THESE SHOULD DRIFT
INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...THEN FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST AS THEY ENCOUNTER SEA BREEZE REGIME. CU FIELD SHOULD
DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NYC...LOWER 50S IN THE SURROUNDING
METRO AREAS...40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 35-40 IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH SW
FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH...A BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...NEAR
80 IN THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...AND 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER WELL INLAND NORTH/WEST OF NYC. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S IN NYC AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS. POP AT 50 PERCENT...BUT THINK WE WILL GO
HIGHER AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. JET DYNAMICS ARE WEAK WITH THE JET
STREAK DISPLACED WELL NORTH IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LI GETS DOWN TO
ABOUT -1 AND THERE ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. WITH SFC TEMPS
INTO THE MID 70S...HAVE INCLUDED TSTMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...CONSISTENT
WITH SPC OUTLOOK.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A CONVECTIVE
INDUCED VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/CMC/ECMWF AND QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SREF...THINK THIS
FEATURE IS OVERDONE IN THE GFS AND HAVE LOWERED POP OVERNIGHT.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE COAST.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY LOWER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. ALSO...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST INTRODUCE A LOW CHC FOR SHRA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INLAND NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

GENERALLY SW-SSW FLOW AROUND 10 KT...EXCEPT W AT KSWF AND KHPN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE MON MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT MON AFTERNOON.
.TUE-WED MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.
LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.WED AFTERNOON-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...THEN
THERE WILL BE TWO CHANCES FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FIRST...SOUTHERLY COASTAL JET COULD REACH 25 KT
LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING ON THE OCEAN W OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET...THEN SW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD PUSH OCEAN SEAS TO 5 FT MAINLY E OF
MORICHES INLET FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUE...WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM.
OCEAN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA EARLY TUE.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT TRANQUIL WX WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE ISSUED FIRE WX WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AS MIN RH FALLS TO 25-30 PERCENT AND S-SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE IN NE NJ...NYC NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK...ESPECIALLY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ELSEWHERE FINE FUELS ARE VERY
DRY...SO MARGINAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO RAPID FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WITH A COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD
PRODUCE BASIN AVERAGES OF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS DRY FROM WED-SUNDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BEGIN ON MON
ONCE PARTS ARRIVE. UPDATED ESTIMATE FOR COMPLETION OF REPAIR IS
MON EVENING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>009.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

GOODMAN/TONGUE/BC



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