Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281358 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 958 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST TODAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL SLOWLY PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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STACKED LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH. OTHER THAN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH LOWER AND MID 60S EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST FINALLY LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THESE OVERALL FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW PERSISTS AS AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY PER NWP MODEL SOLUTIONS. NW WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A RANGE OF TEMPS...WITH LOWS AROUND 50 IN NYC...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. MOS BLEND LOOKS REASONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S...AND APPROACH OR EXCEED 70...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE WATER. NW FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW FROM TRACKING TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AS IT TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME AS SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AND IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEAK COLD FRONT THEN TRIES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP THROUGH THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC MUCH OF THE TIME. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 KT INITIALLY...GUSTING MORE FREQUENTLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 25 KT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTS OVERALL CONTAIN THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST...AS THE TIMING OBSERVED COULD VARY A FEW HOURS FROM FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION ALSO HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WELL. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS COULD BACK TO WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS COULD BACK TO WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY SHRA. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHRA. NE-N WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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N-NW FLOW CONTINUES AS LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS. EXPECT NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO REACH 25 KT THIS MORNING... SO SCA IS IN EFFECT. OVER THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM LAND...A SFC- BASED INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM GUSTING TO 25 KT. WINDS LOOK TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT IN SPOTS IS FORECAST AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THU-FRI AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. LINGERING SWELLS THEREAFTER WILL KEEP OCEAN SEAS ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN RH LEVELS WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WED. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THU-FRI AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/PW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/PW

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