Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 062340 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 740 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND PUSHES IT OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST. THE FORECAST DATABASE WAS ADJUSTED FOR THIS AND THE TREND WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE REMAINING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...LOWERING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. CLOUD COVERAGE WAS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED AS WELL. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT WILL DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. OVERALL...MIN TEMPS FORECAST ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE RELATIVELY COOLER OF MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HELPS KEEP LOW RH ALOFT...BRINGING US A SUNNY DAY...BUT ALSO LIMITS THE MIXING LAYER SOMEWHAT. THE MIXING LAYER DEPTH WILL BE FURTHER REDUCED BY SEA BREEZES THAT ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW. BASED ON TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER...A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT`S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE NORTHEAST...CAN EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRES WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE LOW WILL GO...BUT THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP THE LOW TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE WEATHER IN THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW GOES...COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND INTO SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. IN ADDITION...LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS STATES WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...MAKING IT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NY/PA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM PRESSES TO THE EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THE HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CAN EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT... AND THAT FOG WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS NYC/NORTHEAST NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/PARTS OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. HIGHS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FLOW COMES OFF THE COLDER WATERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNLIMITED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTHERLY...160 TO 200 TRUE...5 KT TO 10 KT THURSDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTER 18Z SOUTHERLY WIND MAY BE STRONGER...15 TO 20 KT WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW 5 TO 10 KT THURSDAY MORNING MAY PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST 17Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY...AS A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE WIND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST...150 TRUE...THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE MOVING THROUGH...PROBABLY AFTER 19Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE WIND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST...150 TRUE...THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE MOVING THROUGH...PROBABLY AFTER 19Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTER 19Z SOUTHERLY WIND MAY BE STRONGER...UP TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY-MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT NIGHT AND THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS AND WIND FORECAST ON THE WATERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WATERS...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. SOME NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST SEAS BUILDING TO SCA LEVELS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS NEAR TERM...JC/JM SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC/JM/MPS HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS

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