Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 202014 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 414 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON WED...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WARM FRONT IS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AIR MASS IS HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE TRAJECTORY OVER THE COOL WATER. THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH. IN IT`S WAKE IS VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER. THE TIMING OF THIS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS JFK IS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. EXTENDED IT INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NRN MN WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU THE WEEK...THEN ESSENTIALLY STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME OVER THE WEEKEND. THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST. AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR THROUGH 00Z IN FOG UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS...THEN TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER 00Z. FOG HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO JFK WITH VSBYS AT A QUARTER OF A MILE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT VSBYS FALL TO A QUARTER MILE. AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOG IS DENSE ON THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY ALREADY AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUND THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE HARBOR IN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. LIGHT WEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU INVOF A CDFNT. && .HYDROLOGY... GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005-006-009>012. NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081-177>179. DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353- 355. DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE

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