Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 052344 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THIS WASHES OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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OVERALL...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...CLOUD COVERAGE AND POPS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE MILD THIS EVENING...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION NEAR 15 DEGREES AND HIGHER. THIS DRIER AIR IS LIMITING ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SPRINKLES AT TIMES BUT ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID EVENING. MORE OF A SIGNAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ALOFT AND WITH LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BY THAT TIME...CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 30 PERCENT TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGHER FOR MORE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING BUILDS SE TOWARD THE AREA AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN ALOFT AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NW. THIS WILL ALSO SEND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NE. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED IN A WEAKENED STATE. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT THESE SYSTEMS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY FROM NYC AND POINTS WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND...TO NEAR 60 FOR NYC METRO. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS BLEND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WED...PRIMARILY FROM NYC AND POINTS WEST AS A DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD ALTOGETHER EVEN MISS THE AREA SHOULD MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO TREND SW WITH THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND REMAINS INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NE FLOW IN THE MORNING THAT BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING. WEAK AFT SEABREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY ON WED WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING SE CT WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN. SKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY CLEAR FROM NE TO SW THROUGH WED EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE 65 TO 70...WITH LOWS WED NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INLAND...TO THE UPPER 50S METRO NY. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER A WARM AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. COASTAL AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AS TEMPS WILL BE COOLED BY THE FLOW OFF THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE ALSO LIKELY...RESULTING IN COOLER AFTERNOON CONDS. UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE...AND WITH THIS BOUNDARY CLOSE BY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS STARTING ON SUNDAY...BUT THE CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION STARTING ON TUESDAY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS UNTIL AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. VFR THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE KSWF TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WEAKENS AND ENDS THROUGH 03Z...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND 5 TO 10 KT GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WIND BECOMES NORTHEAST TOWARD 10Z AROUND 10 KT. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WOULD LIKELY B AFTER 20Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WEAKENS AND ENDS THROUGH 02Z...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND 5 TO 10 KT GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NORTHEAST WIND DEVELOPS TOWARD 10Z AND LIKELY REMAINS NORTHEAST...040 TO 060 TRUE...THROUGH THE DAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST AS THE SEA BREEZE MAY END EARLIER THIS EVENING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST AS THE SEA BREEZE MAY END EARLIER THIS EVENING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TOWARD 10Z. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING WITH WIND BECOME SOUTHEAST...140 TRUE AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND WEAKENS 00Z TO 01Z WITH THE WIND LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTERWARD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING WITH WIND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...140 TO 160 TRUE AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WAVE AND WIND FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A FEW 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A POTENTIAL DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOK TO BE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED...LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MET MARINE...JM/MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW

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