Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 051801 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 201 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED OUT FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INTERIOR NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND INTERIOR SW CT WITH CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG. SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST MAY JUST CAP ANY CONVECTION. HIGHS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THE 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND IN THE 60S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LI/EAST END/AND SE COASTAL CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN COMES LATE TNGT AND WED MRNG. REMNANT MCS APPEARS TO BE THE TRIGGER AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOURCE. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE THETAE ADVECTION TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLD TSTM. OTHERWISE...THE SLUGGISH SFC FRONT JUST S OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE...SO HAVE KEPT SCHC FOR SHWRS FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. COOLER WITH NE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TRANSPORTS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SETS UP TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK PUSH OF THE FRONT SOUTH WITH RIDGING HOLDING STRONG OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH ON SUNDAY FOR THE FRONT TO SINK INTO THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC KEEP THE RIDGE STRONGER...AND THIS HAS AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. HAVE SIDED WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...POPS INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY MONDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S IN THE CITY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY. VFR. ISO SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN PRIMARILY FOR KTEB/KEWR/KLGA/KJFK. COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED FRONT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC VAR OR N WINDS AT TIMES BEFORE 19Z. BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-23Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC VAR OR N WINDS AT TIMES BEFORE 21Z. BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-23Z. TIMING OF SHIFT TO S IN SEA BREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-23Z. TIMING OF SHIFT TO SE IN SEA BREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-23Z. SEA BREEZE SHIFT TIMING TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED AFTN...VFR LIKELY. .WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VFR. .SUN...CHC MVFR OR LOWER. CHC RA. && .MARINE... SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE COLD STABLE WATERS ARE LIMITING WIND GUSTS PER THE BUOY DATA. WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING OVER THEN S OF THE WATERS TNGT AND WED...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BLW SCA LVLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SUB SCA CONDITIONS. A FEW 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. && .HYDROLOGY... BASIN AVE RAINFALL OF AROUND A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED IF A REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IMPACTS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE SCT AND LGT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JC MARINE...JMC/DS HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS

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