Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 012314 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 714 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK...WITH SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR...SE CT...AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LI WITH QUICKER CLEARING. WITH UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INLAND...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CITY/COAST...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...BUT COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN CT/ERN LONG ISLAND IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT...SLOWING DOWN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...BUT FARTHER NORTH/WEST...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP FORM A THERMAL TROUGH...AND THE COMBO OF THE LAGGING SHORTWAVE... INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF THE TROUGH MAY SPARK AN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER. PER WARMER GUIDANCE EXPECT HIGHS 60-65 CLOSER TO THE COAST...65-70 MOST ELSEWHERE...AND SOME LOWER 70S IN NE NJ AND IN THE VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC. THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES ACROSS. LOWS SHOULD BE 50-55 INVOF NYC...40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 30S IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE ON SUN WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK THERMAL TROF AIDED BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED AFT SHOWER INLAND. RIDGING ALOFT ON MON WILL KEEP THE AREA CAPPED OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF THEN TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...BRIEFLY SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NE AND ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE BOUNDARY TUE AFT/NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A STRAY SHOWER COULD LINGER INTO WED MORNING WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY JUST STALLS OUT AND WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH DAYTIME GENERALLY IN THE 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SEA BREEZES. LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS BY TUE OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60 NYC METRO. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. VFR. SE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SAT NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON. .TUE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. .WED...VFR LIKELY. && .MARINE... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL SCA EVENT LATE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JMC/JC MARINE...GOODMAN/DW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW

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