Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 040602 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 202 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TODAY...THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS. MOSTLY CLEAR (BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND) SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FULL MOON. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NYC...LOWER 50S IN THE SURROUNDING METRO AREAS...40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND NEAR 40 IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH SW FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH...A BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...AND 70S ELSEWHERE...UPPER 60S AT THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES. UVI FOR TODAY IS 8...WHICH IS VERY HIGH. (SAME SUN ANGLE AS AUGUST 8TH) A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WELL INLAND NORTH/WEST OF NYC. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN NYC AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS. POP AT 50 PERCENT...BUT THINK WE WILL GO HIGHER AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. JET DYNAMICS ARE WEAK WITH THE JET STREAK DISPLACED WELL NORTH IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LI GETS DOWN TO ABOUT -1 AND THERE ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S...HAVE INCLUDED TSTMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...CONSISTENT WITH SPC OUTLOOK. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A CONVECTIVE INDUCED VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON NAM/CMC/ECMWF AND QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SREF...THINK THIS FEATURE IS OVERDONE IN THE GFS AND HAVE LOWERED POP OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT COOLER AT THE COAST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY LOWER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. ALSO...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST INTRODUCE A LOW CHC FOR SHRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INLAND NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT. LGT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SSW WINDS AND INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KT AFT 16Z AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AM ANTICIPATING AMBROSE JET AT KJFK AFT 20Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20KT...NO GUSTS. ELSEWHERE...GUSTS BETWEEN 18-22 KT SHOULD PREVAIL AFT 17Z...DIMINISHING IN THE EVE. AN OCNL GUST OF 25KT POSSIBLE AT KLGA LATE IN AFTN. KGON MAY NOT GUST AT ALL DUE TO LIMITED MIXING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .TONIGHT...VFR. .TUE-WED MORNING...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. .WED AFTERNOON-FRI...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE MORNING...THEN THERE WILL BE TWO CHANCES FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FIRST...SOUTHERLY COASTAL JET COULD REACH 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ON THE OCEAN W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...THEN SW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD PUSH OCEAN SEAS TO 5 FT MAINLY E OF MORICHES INLET FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUE...WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA EARLY TUE. THEREAFTER...EXPECT TRANQUIL WX WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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HAVE ISSUED FIRE WX WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS MIN RH FALLS TO 25-30 PERCENT AND S-SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE IN NE NJ...NYC NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK...ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ELSEWHERE FINE FUELS ARE VERY DRY...SO MARGINAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WITH A COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE BASIN AVERAGES OF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS DRY FROM WED-SUNDAY. && .EQUIPMENT...
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KOKX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY ONCE PARTS ARRIVE. UPDATED ESTIMATE FOR COMPLETION OF REPAIR IS THIS EVENING.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>009. NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$

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