Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251808 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 208 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH UPR LOW WILL DRIFTING S OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION. A TROUGH LOOKS TO SET UP LOCALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS. KJFK WOULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE INTERIOR TERMINALS WIND WILL REMAIN NW OR SLIGHTLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. CT COASTS WILL HAVE A SW FLOW BUT KISP REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN THE SEA BREEZE WILL ARRIVE. IT DOES REMAIN QUITE POSSIBLE THOUGH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40 DEGREES WITH WIND FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU... .SUN-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. .MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS. .TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR. .THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC/NV SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JM MARINE...DW/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC

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