Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 210309 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1109 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM CENTRAL NJ TO JUST SOUTH OF NYC TO ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS OF 03Z...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR YORK PA AND WESTMINSTER MD. WATCHING LINES OF TSTMS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...ONE OVER ERN PA AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER SE PA AND NRN DELMARVA. WITH MUCAPE 500-750 J/KG TO THE WEST...THE FIRST MAY SURVIVE INTO ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC COUNTIES AND PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE WAKENING ON APPROACH TOWARD NYC. THE CLUSTER OVER SE PA MAY SURVIVE LONGER VIA BETTER LIFT/CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLJ AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW...AND IMPACT LONG ISLAND AND SE CT OVERNIGHT. EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVY TO ALL OF NYC AND NE BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUE TO LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT. THE DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD RISE LATE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND. THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST. AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL 09Z-13Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS W/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE 05Z TO 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT WORKS IN THE AREA. VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW ON TUE. GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG ADVYS NOW IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM IN MARINE FOG. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY THE WATERS INVOF NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU INVOF A CDFNT. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN ORANGE/W PASSAIC AND ALSO ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT. AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005-006- 009>012. NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...DW MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC/TONGUE

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