Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280212 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1012 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF LOWS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION AS OF 01Z. HAVE EXTENDED SCHC POPS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 05Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FURTHER E...CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED GUSTS A FEW KT ACROSS THE AREA AS CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING DUE TO HIGHER TEMPS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCT OUT LATE TONIGHT AND MAY LOSE GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF NYC. UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE REGION PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR ZERO POPS AS ONLY A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATES AROUND THE LOW TUESDAY. THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND WARM ADVECTION DOES SET UP DURING THE DAY. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH BEYOND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...EXPECTING DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE. IF THE FLOW IS WEAK ENOUGH...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE...AND THAT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR COASTAL AREAS. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SFC LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND DEPART DURING THIS TIME...AND THIS HIGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW FROM TRACKING TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AS IT TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME AS SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AND IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...CAN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. WEAK COLD FRONT THEN TRIES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MAINLY EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP THROUGH THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE 70S. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UNLIKELY EXCEPTION IS AT KGON...WHERE MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLY UNLIKELY EVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OCCURS THERE. CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500-6000 FT LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT. WINDS STRONGEST KSWF - WHERE GUSTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MID-LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE/310 MAGNETIC INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE/310 MAGNETIC INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE/310 MAGNETIC INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY SHRA. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT EASTERN TERMINALS. .FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHRA OR RAIN. NE-N WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... A SERIES OF LOWS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MARITIME BEFORE MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EAST. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL NEAR SHORE GUSTS THAT APPROACH 25 KT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND WITH BETTER MIXING OVER THE LAND. EASTERLY PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SCA LEVEL WINDS/WAVES LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND SCA WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. GRADIENT SLACKENS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING SWELLS WILL KEEP OCEAN SEAS ABOVE SCA LEVELS. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET NEAR TERM...24/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...MPS/MET HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET

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