Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 240339
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1039 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX THIS MORNING...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD... WITH
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS TEXOMA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL. ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY AS THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN DEWPOINT AXIS
INTO THE REGION AND AVAILABLE LIFT FROM A SUBTLE H700 WAVE MOVING
E/NE INTO SWRN OK/WRN N TX. KEPT CHANCE POPS AS COVERAGE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE COMMON IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BEFORE
SUNRISE. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRATUS HAS INHIBITED HEATING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY WITH
PERSISTENT ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
STORMS BEFORE 00Z. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT A NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FOLLOW. IN
ADDITION...A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE OUT
OF THE PANHANDLE ~06Z. NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AROUND
1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 06-09Z WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PRESENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE OF SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL OK. THEN...LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND APPROACH THE SE RED RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER OUR SE
ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

THE PREVIOUS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY AT LEAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DRYLINE FRI AFT/EVE. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND OKC TO TO SWO TO PNC...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE THEY MOVE
EAST OUT OF AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I35...THEY WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE SW AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY STALLING OUT. MAXTS IN THE LOW 90S APPEAR
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW TRAVERSES NM
AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON AM. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL DRY
OUT AND COOL OFF TUES-WED BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  80  56  85 /  40  30  20   0
HOBART OK         61  84  55  87 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  84  58  89 /  20  20  10   0
GAGE OK           58  81  52  84 /  20  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  81  58  83 /  50  30  20  10
DURANT OK         63  79  62  88 /  40  70  40   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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