Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 240802
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR TODAY SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA.

SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA UP THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD AS PRES FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. THIS SHOULD PUT THE AREA WELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS A RATHER DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY.

ONE COMPLICATING ISSUE IS THAT MANY OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING... WHICH IS CURRENTLY
TRANSPIRING...TO GO ALONG WITH THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND FOG. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
PRECIP WILL ALSO INHIBIT BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA... OR AT LEAST DELAY IT.

THE DRYLINE ALSO SEEMS TO BE A WILDCARD AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING FARTHER WEST IT KEEPS MORE OF THE AREA WITH A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR... SOME WELL WEST OF I-35... ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
THE 3 TO 4 PM TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY... SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE... A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH RATHER WARM TEMPS. LUCKILY GREEN UP FROM RECENT RAINS
WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER QUIET DAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AND REMAINING WARM AS
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. HOWEVER THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT... SOUTH WINDS WILL PULL INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT. FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT AGAIN BECOMES A BIT
MORE COMPLICATED AS MODELS DIFFER ON POSITION AND TIMING OF UPPER
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA MAY END UP NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITH MAINLY AREAS
NEAR THE RED RIVER SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR INTO MONDAY. STILL COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT... BUT MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY... BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK APPEARS WILL BE DRY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  55  85  54 /  40  20   0   0
HOBART OK         82  53  86  53 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  56  87  54 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           82  50  84  49 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  54  83  51 /  30  30   0   0
DURANT OK         77  61  87  57 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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