Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171058
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT SURE IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO
THE I-44 CORRIDOR. SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING REMAINS LOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

TSRA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 15Z AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES. IF TSRA
DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE...BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WIND AND MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP 12-15Z WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...LOCATIONS WILL BE
VFR BY 21Z.

ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA WILL OCCUR AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY AFTER
21Z ACROSS THE AREA. PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN REMAINS
VERY CHALLENGING.

ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY FORM AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE AREA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         75  55  80  51 /  60  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  58  81  54 /  50  50  20  20
GAGE OK           74  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         77  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



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