Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 032348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
04/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL NOT MENTION -SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY
WEST OF TERMINALS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST AND FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS OVERNIGHT NORTH OF TAF SITES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
MODERATE-STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
FORECAST OF MVFR CIGS SPREADING OVER MOST SITES 10-12Z THEN RISE
TO VFR TOWARD AND AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS ASSOCIATED WITH JET...ALTHOUGH
THIS PROG WILL BE WATCHED FOR INCLUSION IN NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER
ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY WITH
AID OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWLY-APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO THE
WEST OF OKLAHOMA WITH STEERING FLOW BRINGING SOME OF THEM INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. CHANCES INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO BE A PLAYER FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DAY BUT OTHER SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES WILL
BE MISSING. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND GENERAL RAINFALL OVER AN
INCH IN MANY PLACES, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  79  60  75 /  10  10  10  40
HOBART OK         62  79  60  73 /  10  10  30  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  80  61  76 /   0  10  10  60
GAGE OK           60  80  58  69 /  20  30  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  60  78 /  10  20  10  30
DURANT OK         60  79  60  77 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/11



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