Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 231141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

THINK CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AT ALL SITES THROUGH 15Z...MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FG THAT MAY GO
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS WILL OCCUR AT KSPS THROUGH 15Z. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSPS. THE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KSPS
AND PERHAPS KLAW BEYOND 00Z.

AREAS OF -DZ WILL FORM AND AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA 13-24Z.

ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY FORM AFTER 21Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION
IN TAFS AS CHANCES OF ANY ONE SITE BEING AFFECTED REMAIN TOO LOW
TO MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.

THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THINK QUIET WEATHER WILL OCCUR DUE
TO CAPPING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF A
WOODWARD TO CHICKASHA TO ADA LINE THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...THUS WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE FOR
GUIDANCE HIGHS.

AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW
STORMS MAY FORM OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WHERE SOME AFTERNOON SUN MAY OCCUR. THESE COULD BE
SUPERCELLULAR WITH GIANT HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD DUE TO VERY
STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. TORNADO THREAT SEEMS
TO BE VERY LOW DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. NOT SURE ANY STORMS
WILL FORM BEFORE 8 PM DUE TO CAPPING AND AS ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING.

AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING...BELIEVE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRST DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO VERY
STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORM. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER SOME SEVERE REPORTS
WILL LIKELY RESULT.

FRIDAY MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THERE IS STILL A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS NEAR AND EAST OF A DEVELOPING
DRYLINE. MORNING CONVECTION MAY CUT OFF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST INSTABILITY. NOT TO MENTION...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND
DRYSLOT MAY BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WHICH TEND TO SUPPRESS STORM
FORMATION. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND SOME
INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A FEW FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES IF STORMS CAN FORM. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS MAY BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE AT LEAST
ELEVATED. HELD OFF WITH ANY WIND AND FIRE HEADLINES FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY AND WARM.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
HAZARD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  60  82  58 /  20  30  20  10
HOBART OK         68  62  89  55 /  20  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  64  87  59 /  10  30  20  10
GAGE OK           62  59  85  51 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     64  59  80  55 /  10  40  20  20
DURANT OK         70  64  79  61 /  20  50  70  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17


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