Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 301537 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE SUNNY DAY TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING
DAYS...AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEPENING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL ESTABLISH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
EXPECT FAIRLY WARM DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S MOST
PLACES. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUNDAY...BUT ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENCROACH ON OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECT
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM EACH DAY AS IT MOVES
EAST. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL DAYS OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE
OCCURRED LEADING UP TO THIS STORM SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS WILL
LIKELY FAVOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY ALSO EXIST GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO SOME EXTENT...RESULTING IN LESS CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. AS ALWAYS...IT WILL
BE IMPORTANT TO FOLLOW FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY AS DETAILS
REGARDING NEXT WEEKS HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

IN THE MEANTIME...ENJOY THE PLEASANT WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         78  51  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  51  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           78  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     78  50  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         78  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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