Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 011927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  83  57  86 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/25



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