Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 061753
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING OF EVERYTHING IN THE TAFS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THE FORECASTS
ARE BASED ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF NORMAL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA IN SW OK/W N
TX...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
01Z...ALTHOUGH TSRA ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT CANNOT BE FORECAST PRECISELY ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
CREATE A LOW CLOUD LAYER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE
USUAL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT. WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA
TONIGHT...BUT SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z. MODERATE
TO FAIRLY STRONG S WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONT TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF SW AND
CENTRAL OK. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW
THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA OR END EARLY THIS AFTN AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN NW OK.
SOME LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY BUT IF THE STRONG WINDS PERSIST MAY NEED
ONE FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN NW OK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA... WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS... AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

AVIATION...06/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD... CEILINGS WILL VARY THIS MORNING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR AT ALL SITES... WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING... WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR THROUGH 06/18Z. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR
WRN OK/WRN N TX... FELT CONFIDENT TO MENTION IN
KCSM/KHBR/KLAW/KSPS TAFS WITH TEMPO GROUP. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY TODAY... INCREASING TO 20 TO 30KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

UPDATE...
PRECIP/WX THROUGH THIS MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE OKC METRO
NEAR THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY... LIFTING N/NE THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK 850MB DPT AXIS THAT NUDGES
INTO CENTRAL OK... WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE AXIS OF 12 TO 14C
DEWPOINTS. ELSEWHERE... STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
TERMINUS OF THE LLJ OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK... NEAR PONCA CITY.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE... WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP CONTINUING TO EXIT ACROSS ERN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LOT TO COVER... TRIED TO HIT THE HIGHLIGHTS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THIS MORNING... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ALOFT... THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO CHURN N/NE INTO ERN CO/WRN KS... RESULTING IN A
REGION OF STRONG ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF OK. THIS COMBINED WITH
DECENT LL SHEAR... GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND SPORADIC GUSTS OF 55
TO 65 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 4 TO 5 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...
INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF ROADWAYS IN NORMAN AND IN CYRIL.

THROUGH SUNRISE... EXPECT SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS WRN OK.
THROUGH 08Z... WV IMAGERY PAINTS THE PICTURE FAIRLY CLEAR... WITH
DRIER AIR HELPING THIN CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TX PH. IT APPEARS... AT THE MOMENT... THAT WE WILL
RECOVER FAIRLY WELL TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT H500 IMPULSE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THROUGH NERN NM. LL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO WRN OK... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NRN TX WHERE MID 60S DPTS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTN. WITH SFC WARMING THROUGH THE AFTN... INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE... WITH MLCAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 1200 TO 2500 J/KG
POOLING AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. SPEAKING OF THE DRYLINE...
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DEVELOP A MODEST DPT
GRADIENT... ADVANCING JUST TO THE WRN OK/TX BORDER. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND ARW FLAVORS OF THE WRF ARE A TAD MORE
AGGRESSIVE... ADVANCING IT A TOUCH FURTHER INTO WRN OK/WRN N TX.
EXPECT MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR... 30-40KTS AND ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY... SUGGESTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
BUFR PROFILES OF CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WOULD EASILY
SUGGEST GOLF BALLS... TO NEAR BASEBALLS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS FOR TORNADOES... BETTER CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE IN SRN KS WHERE LL
WIND FIELDS WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE RESIDENT SFC LOW.
HOWEVER... THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK/WRN N TX... AS LL
SHEAR INCREASES WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING... AND
COULD BE ENHANCED IF THE DRYLINE MAKES IT A TAD FARTHER EAST AND
STORMS CAN MAINTAIN RESIDENCE ON THE BOUNDARY OR IF ADDITIONAL
STORMS GO UP ON ANY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER UPDRAFTS. OVERALL...
DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY... SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION... PRIMARILY FROM WRN N TX AND SRN OK THROUGH
NERN OK AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...
WHILE TO THE NORTH IN KS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL... LINGERING
FROM THE NRN PANHANDLES INTO NERN KS WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THU AFTN. ONCE AGAIN... THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE
ANOTHER PUSH INTO THE ERN PANHANDLES NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY HEAVILY ON HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS TO THE
PRIOR MORNING ACTIVITY. AT THE MOMENT... EXPECT ENOUGH RECOVERY TO
GET MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE AGAIN... WITH
INITIATION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN SWRN KS... WHERE THE
DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT INTERSECT... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS... WITH A WINDOW FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES... WITH A
LOW CHANCES ACROSS NWRN OK/WRN OK. OVERNIGHT... AGREE WITH SPC
ANALYSIS... STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AIDED BY THE INCREASING LLJ AND MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK THROUGH FRI MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY... SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AS
ANOTHER H500 IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE WRN TROUGH AND LIFTS E/NE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO TODAY AND THU... INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO RECOVERY... BUT A QUICK GLANCE THIS MORNING
SUGGEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AND FOCUSING FROM THE COLD FRONT IN SRN KS
AND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
FOR STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE THREATS...
WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO HAZARD IN THE EARLY EVENING AS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LCLS AND LL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS SFC WINDS
BACK ACROSS SWRN KS/NRN PANHANDLES/NWRN OK. OVERNIGHT... STORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS... MOVING ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK.

PRESSING FOR TIME... STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY AS WELL...
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTN AND EVENING AS
THE DRYLINE MAKES ANOTHER SURGE EAST... WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
FARTHER PUSH INTO WRN OK. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIMILAR
SETUP TO THU AND FRI... WITH A SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE LATE IN THE AFTN WITH DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.

FOR SUNDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH S/SE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AS THE WRN TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY... ENDING NW/SE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  64  77  64 /  60  50  40  60
HOBART OK         78  62  77  64 /  30  60  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  64  79  66 /  30  60  50  50
GAGE OK           81  62  80  59 /  10  20  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     76  66  79  63 /  70  50  40  70
DURANT OK         77  65  79  67 /  60  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23/23



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