Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 060522
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA...LIKELY DUE TO STRONG FORCING FROM THE NEARBY
NEGATIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL TO HALF DOLLARS AND WINDS TO 60 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE
BIGGER HAZARDS. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW DUE TO RATHER
STABLE LOW LEVELS...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND A FEW
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY BEEN DETECTED BY RADARS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN ACCELERATING EASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AND
WILL BE WELL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 4 AM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

ONGOING TSRA WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 08Z. BRIEF VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
EAST OF KAVK-KLAW THROUGH 08Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY FORM 08-21Z...BUT CHANCES OF
THIS OCCURRING HAS DECREASED DUE TO ONGOING TSRA. THUS...WENT
OPTIMISTIC DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING MOST PLACES VFR.

AFTER 21Z...GENERALLY THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.

ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE AREA AFTER
20Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND LOCATIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS DECREASING COVERAGE IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THINK THIS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS
MAINLY NEAR I-35. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS THINK THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAINFALL RATES
BELOW ONE INCH PER HOUR AND LESSEN THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING.

SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW AND DECREASING AS
THE AIR IS RATHER STABLE AND COOL FROM ONGOING RAIN.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY
BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...REDEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER WEST
TEXAS...EASTERN NM...AND THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE MID
TO UPPER VORT MAX TRAVERSING NM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AS THIS FEATURE PASSES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND
MOVES INTO OUR REGION. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
IF MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS OUR EASTERN FA BY 18Z TOMORROW...THIS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE A SLIGHT
RISK REMAINS INTACT. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY BY 00Z...ALONG WITH FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPHS WEST OF I35 (ESPECIALLY THE NAM). WEAK
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INITIATION ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE BUT THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS INCREASING THE RISK OF TORNADOES AS STORMS
MOVE EAST CLOSER TO THE I35 CORRIDOR.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW. SEVERAL MID TO UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLOWLY
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY OF THE WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY BUT
SATURDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
MOVE INTO SE OK SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASING AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK...AND MAYBE WESTERN N TX. FOR THE
MOMENT CURRENT NWP QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END BY
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
TEXAS TUES AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  77  65  79 /  50  40  70  50
HOBART OK         64  78  64  79 /  50  50  70  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  80  67  79 /  50  50  60  60
GAGE OK           62  79  60  79 /  20  50  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     67  79  64  80 /  50  40  80  70
DURANT OK         67  80  68  79 /  30  40  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/26/17


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