Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 201120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO -SHRA MAY FORM OVER MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA BUT DID NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AS CHANCES OF DIRECTLY AFFECTING ANY GIVEN SITE
REMAINS VERY LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TODAY WILL BE DRY AND QUIET DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THESE AREAS BUT CHOSE TO GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF SPRINKLES IS LOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE TODAY.

TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-40...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. THERE
MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND UNDER 0.25 INCH.

TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-40. KEPT LOW
STORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...THOUGH APPEARS
CAPPING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. A FEW EVENING
STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS MAY MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS 8 PM. APPEARS
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH INCREASING
ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME
SEVERE...SEEM LIKELY. MORNING STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAVE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE...POSSIBLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS. THE PATTERN MAY BE MESSY...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS
COULD OCCUR. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK OF AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS NOT SURE HOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT UP AND OVER THIS BOUNDARY
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MORE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EXACT HAZARDS...TIMING...AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  48  73  54 /   0  30  30  40
HOBART OK         69  48  74  54 /   0  20  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  50  76  60 /   0  10  20  40
GAGE OK           66  46  74  50 /  10  30  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  46  72  53 /   0  20  20  20
DURANT OK         72  48  71  57 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17


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