Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171945
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  79  53  76 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           51  77  47  66 /  50  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  60  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  60  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84


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