Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 041140
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 13Z IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY
AFTERNOON... CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A BREEZY SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS
BEEN WEAKENING SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  MODEST MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
SUNRISE...SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN KANSAS AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. STORM MOTION MAY KEEP A MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST. LIMITED INSTABILITY WITHIN STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG A DRYLINE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  60  75  62 /  10  10  60  80
HOBART OK         80  60  72  62 /  10  30  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  61  75  65 /  10  10  60  70
GAGE OK           81  58  69  60 /  30  50  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     83  60  78  63 /  10  10  30  80
DURANT OK         80  60  77  64 /  10   0  50  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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