Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 221146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MANY SITES THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
ENDING. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM AFTER 16Z...BUT ONLY KEPT
VCTS/VCSH MENTION AFTER 00Z AT KSPS AND KLAW WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS HIGHEST. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TSRA.

OVERALL...WENT FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR AT NEARLY ANY SITE...BUT ONLY INCLUDED THEM NEAR KSPS
AFTER 06Z WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THINK CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY WORSEN AT MOST SITES AFTER 01Z...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
MAINLY WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CORDELL
TO ARDMORE.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR CORDELL CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO
WATCH FOR SEVERE REPORTS. ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST
OF OKLAHOMA CITY TEND TO BE WEAKER AND SUBSEVERE. A FEW ADDITIONAL
MAINLY NON SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LATEST RADARS AS OF 230 AM DEPICTED IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING
MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THINK THEY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
THEY MAY DEVELOP INTO A CLUSTER OR SMALL COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING A BIT FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. ALSO...THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE.

THIS MORNING...THINK A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AS THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH A
FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH COULD OCCUR...MAINLY
NEAR AN ARNETT TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO HOLDENVILLE LINE. THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA MAY BE AFFECTED BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. STORMS MAY
WEAKEN AFTER 9 AM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND AS THEY MOVE
INTO WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EAST OF I-35.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SEVERE...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE THE SPC DAY 1
HAS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FORECAST. LATEST HRRR
HINTED THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY FORM NEAR THE RED RIVER AS EARLY
AS 3 PM. STORMS MAY TRANSFORM INTO A COMPLEX BY THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE RED
RIVER.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE
INCREASING. IT APPEARS THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION WILL NOT
COMPLETELY STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY STRONG
0-6 KM SHEAR 40-65 KT AND MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/KG SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN GOLF BALLS. TORNADO
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH
LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY INCREASE 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO
CLUSTERS OR LINES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD
RESULT.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
REGARDS TO STORM POTENTIAL. COOLER...MOIST...AND MORE STABLE AIR
MAY MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS FOG MAY RESULT A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...CLOSER TO A SURFACE
BOUNDARY...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RED RIVER IF CLEARING CAN OCCUR. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEY COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD. IT APPEARS HIGHER STORM CHANCES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY
WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF A DRYLINE AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS...MAINLY EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DUE TO CONVECTION OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MORNING STORMS WOULD
HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH GIANT HAIL AND TORNADOES IF THEY OCCUR.
REGARDLESS...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WEST
OF A DRYLINE MAY ENHANCE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM...DRY...AND QUIET WEATHERWISE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN BE SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT.

NEXT TUESDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUIET AGAIN.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  53  69  59 / 100  40  30  40
HOBART OK         74  53  70  58 /  50  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  57  77  62 /  40  70  30  40
GAGE OK           61  46  65  54 /  30  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     64  46  65  54 /  30  20  20  30
DURANT OK         74  57  74  62 /  70  70  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



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