Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 222320 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION WEATHER TONIGHT... VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...
POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SWRN OK/WRN N TX AFTER 00Z... POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KLAW/KSPS
BETWEEN 02 AND 06Z. AFTER 06Z... LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION... WITH IFR CEILINGS AND BR DEVELOPING AT NEARLY
ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH NOON
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK/WRN N TX.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I40 THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR NORTH OF IT ACROSS
NORTHERN OK. SOUTH OF HERE...THE FLOW REMAINS ESE BEHIND A
MODIFIED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR SPS. AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWRD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK. COLD TEMPS ALOFT/VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
MAY SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE RED
RIVER. IN ADDITION...STORM BOUNDARY INTERACTION COULD RESULT IN A
FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A COMPLEX
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN AND SE OK. TIMING IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE...BUT MOST
OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE FOR OUR FA.

FOR TOMORROW MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER...BUT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY NUDGE IT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE S AND SE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORT
MAX LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG MID-
UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE ORGANIZATION...BUT THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW SINCE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS APPEARS LIKELY MOST OF THE DAY OVER THIS AREA. THE
FORECAST FRI REMAINS TRICKY...BUT MOST NWP MODELS NOW HAVE THE
DRYLINE NEAR I35 BY 00 SAT. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION MAY LIFT OUT
OF NORTH TEXAS INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LIMITING AFT/EVE
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SOUTHERN OK BEFORE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
DRYSLOT WILL ENGULF MOST OF OK BY 00Z AS THE DRYLINE QUICKLY
SURGES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WE CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE
CHCS FRI...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I35 ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT IT
APPEARS THE BEST STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE/EAST OF
OUR FA AT THIS TIME.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVG HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED
SAT AND SUN OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE THEY COULD APPROACH
90. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW MOVES OVER NM. FOR NOW...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
WITH POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE BUT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY FOR SOME REGIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  68  60  82 /  30  30  30  20
HOBART OK         54  70  60  85 /  50  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  80  63  86 /  70  20  30  20
GAGE OK           47  65  53  82 /  30  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  64  54  80 /  20  20  30  40
DURANT OK         62  72  64  81 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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