Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 161152 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DISSIPATED
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS CREATED AN AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CIGS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES INCLUDING KOKC THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE LATER THIS MORNING... AND
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT MANY SITES
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL SET
UP AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... TODAY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES... TOMORROW IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND SATURDAY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY
TODAY THE FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... BUT LOW
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD STORM CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH PRIMARY AREA OF
POTENTIAL WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW... AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH EVOLUTION FOR SATURDAY/S
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INCREASED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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