Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 042340 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT WILL BRINGS SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAR EAST AS
I35 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN N TX AND NORTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW AS MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER WAVE NEARS THE
AREA.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE EARLY WED AM AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IT STILL APPEARS SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL OK. BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG A SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OK IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. WED MAY BE THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE WX THIS WEEK IF ENOUGH FORCING IS
PRESENT FOR INITIATION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

SHOWER AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS EACH DAY OVER THE
PANHANDLES AND INTO NW TX...AND STORMS LIFT ENE OVER OK WITH MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE SW
CONUS FRI. IT APPEARS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  63  77 /  10  20  80  40
HOBART OK         61  72  62  79 /  30  70  80  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  76  65  80 /  20  60  80  30
GAGE OK           60  70  59  81 /  60  80  70  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  65  78 /  10  20  80  60
DURANT OK         60  78  64  78 /  10  40  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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