Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST IS ON TAP...WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST SLOWLY...AND WEAKEN
AS IT DOES SO. STILL...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDER FROM CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
MID AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TSRA/SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY SETTLE INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS THIS MORNING TO POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALSO
TWEAKED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER...AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE POST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIRMASS.
EXPECT ANY WARMING TODAY TO BE RATHER SLOW AS ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. THOUGH SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AS
AIRMASS MAY REMAIN WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION FOR SOME
TIME. STILL...IF STORMS CAN MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST...AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  78  55  72 /  60  30  30  20
HOBART OK         55  80  51  71 /  50  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  81  54  76 /  50  20  20  10
GAGE OK           51  79  48  68 /  50  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  76  54  71 /  70  50  50  40
DURANT OK         62  79  59  77 /  60  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84


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