Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 020541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT 850MB LIFT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO FAR NWRN OK... WITH A FEW
RETURNS ON KVNX OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. HOWEVER... REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AS TO WHETHER MUCH... IF ANY... OF THIS PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN WEAK 700MB SUPPORT. THEREFORE... DECIDED TO CARRY
SPRINKLES THROUGH 09Z... ASSESSING THE SITUATION AS TIME
PROGRESSES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE EXISTING RAIN AREA NOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW
DIMINISHING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FARTHER EAST...SO IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL FALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS...WEATHER...ETC. AS IS FOR NOW...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE RESILIENT THAN
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...PRIMARILY AOA 15KFT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30KTS NW/W-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS REST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/REMAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN OK BUT OTHERWISE A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80S.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE OVER CA AND BAJA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
FA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM`S PATH... TIMING... ETC. THE GFS
SHOWS ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA... SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS... MAY GET AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN U.S.
THAT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. IF THIS
OCCURS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... IT IS MAY
SO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         81  57  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           83  57  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     82  60  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         80  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/06



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