Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 012010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THIS
REGION RESULTING IN LIGHT SHOWERS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY
COULD RESULT IN SOME MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT EXPECT VERY LITTLE COVERAGE IF ANY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AROUND CLAY COUNTY. OUT WEST...EVIDENCE OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES IS PRESENT IN VISIBLE SAT WITH AN ELEVATED CU FIELD
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLES. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH...A THREAT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS. WILL LEAVE THE RFW IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM ACROSS NW OK
WHERE RH CONTINUES TO DROP...BUT FEEL CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
BRIEF. IN ADDITION...DRY LIGHTNING CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LLJ DEVELOPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. THE
SFC PATTEN LOOKS LIKE A NICE SETUP FOR STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG SW
FLOW ABOVE THE SFC WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG CAP. A DRY SLOT WILL
THEN MOVE OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...DO
NOT EXPECT MANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THURS WITH MOST STAYING
WELL NORTH OR EAST. THERE IS A CHANCE A VERY SUBTLE WAVE AROUND
700 MB COULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SE/E...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR
THURS.

AS THE STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY...A FAIRLY
STOUT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. DO NOT ANTICIPATED AN
ADVISORY RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL PASS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ON TO
THE NEXT SHIFT. A ~1030 MB SFC HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
SAT AM AND DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NW.
COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT FREEZING...ALTHOUGH FORECAST LOWS
ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE THIS MARK. THE NEXT CHC OF STORMS/RAIN
WILL RETURN SUNDAY MORNING AS A COUPLE OF SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT OUT OF WEST TEXAS. THE HIGHEST CHCS WILL BE
NEAR THE RED RIVER/SE OK SUN AM...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STORMS
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE W N TX BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  81  56  63 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         59  84  53  63 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  89  62  68 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           52  77  46  60 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  78  50  60 /  20  20  30  10
DURANT OK         65  83  67  68 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03


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