Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270102 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 900 PM...THICKER CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE FURTHER ON POPS LATER TONIGHT...TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF PIT/LBE...WITH NO PRECIP IMMINENT AND RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING CLOSER TO 12Z. SNOWFLAKES STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE WITH SUBZERO H850 TEMPS AND SURFACE VALUES IN THE MID 30S. WITH LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL...THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM IN TIME TO PREVENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THOUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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