Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260714 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 314 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM PROGNOSIS. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EXIT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHING AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ERODES THE MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY...SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADDED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL VFR FORECAST AS AREA OF MID DECK MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. MID DECK WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN PORTS AROUND DAWN... WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS TAKING PLACE OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU TO DEVELOP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CLOCK AT AROUND 8 T0 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/22

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