Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060546 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 146 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEN ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-80 AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FROM ABOUT 280 DEGREES...SO CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE SECTION OF CLEARING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A RESULT OF DRIER AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24HRS. THE LAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP MOISTURE WILL SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE LOW-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FEED INSTABILITY TO THE POINT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH MOISTURE RETREATING AND ONLY MEAGER FORCING COMING IN THE FORM OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A MUCH DRIER FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. ENERGY EJECTS FROM A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY. RESULTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD WITH TIME...PERHAPS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS GET A BIT HIGHER EACH DAY WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. RIPPLES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT...WHICH OF COURSE ARE TOUGH TO TIME AT THIS DISTANCE. THE FRONT BRINGS MORE GENERALIZED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY STATIC ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF 60. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHOULD STAY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO FKL/DUJ...BUT A STABILIZING AIRMASS PRECLUDES THE NECESSITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INCLUSION. SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN CLEARING AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...SOME FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DO EXIST. FOG SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY NOT IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z. LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. WHILE SPATIAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...DUJ/LBE COULD SEE TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TAX .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MORNING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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