Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 070100 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 900 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ACTIVITY ON RADAR HAS TRENDED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH NOTHING MUCH TO NOTE AT THE MOMENT OTHER THAN SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO ANTICIPATING THESE OUTFLOWS TO TRIGGER ANY FURTHER CONVECTION AS LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LOWEST 100MB AND BASED ON RADAR RETURNS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ONLY EXTEND TO ROUGHLY BETWEEN 2-2.5KFT AGL. WITH THAT IN MIND MADE A COUPLE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...REMOVED ANY REMAINING MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. WITH THAT AND THE FACT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE STORY WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH THE AIRMASS GENERALLY REMAINING CONTINENTAL...MEANING LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF...MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...DESPITE THE MODELS SUGGESTING QPF. THUS...ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST AS A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE ABSENT. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO EASTERN OHIO...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WILL NOT GET TO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL PERSIST...WITH MID TO UPPER 80`S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH MONDAY WITH FRONT CROSSING REGION TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST QUITE CLOSE TO WPC EXTENDED PROGS WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DONE FOR THE NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS AROUND DAWN...WITH IFR CIGS AT KFKL AND KDUJ. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS DAYTIME HEATING INITIATES. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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