Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180102 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/33

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