Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161152 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 752 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY AND COMFORTABLE START TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NO CHANGES NEEDED TO EARLY MORNING UPDATE PREVIOUS... SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THINK A SLOWER APPROACH TO BEGINNING THE SHOWERS IS THE WAY TO GO AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY ENCROACH ON THE REGION ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMES OF THE LOW DETERIORATION OF CIGS...HOWEVER VIRGA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN INTO LIGHT RAIN AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENCROACH. INCREASING ESE TURNING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CIGS WILL TREND AT LEAST CLOSE TO IFR BY TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY ENTERS THE REGION.FRIES .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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